Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
